MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal to reach 662 million tonnes of annual coal output by 2050, as outlined in a recently approved industry strategy. This target is incorporated into Russia’s updated coal development plan, which includes this scenario among its possible projections. In 2024, production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government authorized the plan via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and sector growth.
The strategy presents four potential pathways for coal industry development through 2050. Under the primary scenario, production is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, ultimately reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. The remaining scenarios specify lower production figures for 2050, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes under the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia has also set export goals. The primary scenario projects coal exports at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, rising to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and further increasing to 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports expanded by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and foreign sales.
Production and export forecasts
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while also expanding coal resource development. It emphasizes a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together contributed 48.3% of national output in 2024. The plan envisions increasing this share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
Additional targets are set for coal processing and extraction methods. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, accounted for 58.9%. The strategy aims to raise this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining, which contributed 78.4% of output in 2024, is expected to increase its share to between 82% and 85% under the long-term plans. The document also covers measures related to productivity, technology, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal strategy extending to 2050
Russia intends to implement the plan in three phases. The first phase, up to 2030, includes efforts to expand production and support industry development. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will focus on coal utilization, processing innovations, and regional logistics. The final phase, spanning from 2037 to 2050, will see the continuation of these initiatives. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution alongside federal, regional authorities, and other involved organizations, providing annual progress reports to the Economic Development Ministry as mandated by government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised plan at a government session on September 21. It replaces Russia’s previous coal industry strategy through 2035, which was approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that the plan forecasts a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne figure remains a scenario target rather than an absolute forecast, as stated in the document.
}domantly, the plan aims to significantly boost Russia’s coal sector over the coming decades while balancing domestic needs and export ambitions.