ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects the global cereal harvest for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s historic peak. Despite this anticipated dip, the organization notes that the total will still rank as the second-largest on record. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July estimate, with an annual decrease of 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
Forecasts for world maize output have been adjusted downward to 1.309 billion tonnes, as weaker crop prospects dampened earlier predictions. Extensive summer heat and dryness affected yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, which partly offset these reductions, with both nations expected to produce well above average maize volumes in 2026.
The global wheat harvest is now projected at 810.7 million tonnes, representing an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous forecasts. Improvements in yield expectations have led to upward revisions for Canada and Morocco by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine have also been revised upward, while dry weather conditions reduced expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these adjustments, global wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels, ranking as the second-largest crop in history.
Maize setbacks contribute to global cereal forecast decrease
For the 2026/27 season, the FAO estimates world rice production at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, indicating a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from favorable yields in Myanmar and strong main-crop outputs in Sri Lanka. These gains helped balance reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO projects total global cereal utilization at 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a modest increase of 0.2% compared to the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, though wheat use is forecast to decline from last season’s elevated levels. World rice consumption is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed demand remains significant, including barley use in China and maize consumption in the United States.
Grain stock levels remain historically ample despite slight forecast adjustments
At the end of the 2027 seasons, global cereal stocks are forecast to reach 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial opening levels. The cereals-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the previous season. While wheat reserves are set to increase in Russia and Ukraine, lower inventories of maize and barley have slightly diminished the overall stock outlook.
The forecast for international cereal trade in 2026/27 stands at 509.3 million tonnes, representing a 1.7 million tonne rise from earlier estimates. Nevertheless, this figure remains below the record volume seen in 2025/26. The increase is primarily driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice exports for 2026 are projected at 60.5 million tonnes, while overall rice shipments remain 1.9% below the 2025 record.