GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This marks a significant upward revision from the 1.9 percent estimate provided in March. According to the WTO, increased trade activity in the first half of the year, along with supply chain adjustments and investments in artificial intelligence, contributed to the more optimistic outlook. Despite major disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade to expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A key driver behind the merchandise trade growth in the initial half of the year was the demand linked to artificial intelligence. Goods that enable AI, such as semiconductors and servers, represented 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth. Trade in these items surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that global investments in AI infrastructure are expected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026. The robust demand for computing hardware supported trade activity, even as other sectors faced disruptions due to conflicts and transportation constraints.
Supply chains worldwide have adapted to pressures across key commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Simultaneously, liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers mitigated the decline, resulting in a roughly 6 percent reduction in global crude oil exports. Meanwhile, global LNG exports decreased by just 1 percent. Container throughput globally grew by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting shifts to alternative ports and routes to sustain trade flows.
AI-enabled products bolster worldwide merchandise trade
While merchandise trade forecasts show strength, expectations for commercial services are more subdued. The WTO has revised downward its 2026 projection for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have put additional pressure on transport and international travel. In the second quarter, international tourist arrivals fell by 0.8 percent, and overall growth for the first half was only 0.4 percent higher. Growth in travel-related expenditure also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Despite these setbacks, other service sectors performed better. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services rose 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The WTO predicts a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027, alongside an expected global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in the following year.
Disparities in regional trade growth persist
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal significant variations across different parts of the world. The WTO expects Asia to lead in merchandise export growth with a 9.9 percent increase in 2026. North America’s exports are projected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is forecast at 5.6 percent. South America is expected to see a 3.4 percent rise, whereas Europe may experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to decrease by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, import growth varies markedly across regions. Asia is anticipated to see merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, and Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, while Europe’s imports might grow by 0.5 percent. In contrast, merchandise imports into the Middle East are projected to fall by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest figures demonstrate trade resilience but also expose the uneven impact of economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.