MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia has set a goal to increase its annual vehicle manufacturing to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035, as part of its revised automotive industry strategy. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this objective on Aug. 31 during a sector development meeting. The projected figure includes vehicles intended for both the domestic market and exports. The plan also aims for 80% of new vehicles in Russia to be produced locally by 2035.
The Russian government approved the updated automotive strategy on Aug. 24, extending the industry’s framework through 2035. At the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity was about 3.3 million units annually, while actual output that year was close to 800,000 units. Capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles during 2024 and 2025. Trucks and buses had utilization rates of 35% and 43%, respectively.
The scenario set for 2035 envisions production of approximately 2.5 million passenger vehicles and about 170,000 light commercial units. The plan also includes manufacturing of 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production is assigned to four or five vehicle platforms, whereas light commercial vehicles would be produced on one or two platforms. The total new-vehicle market in this scenario is estimated at around 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports potentially accounting for up to 20% of that total.
Vehicle segment targets are comprehensive
The strategy incorporates a baseline scenario with more modest production and market projections. Under this alternative, vehicle production in 2035 is expected to reach approximately 1.69 million units, with the new-vehicle market totaling about 2.2 million units that year. For 2030, the target scenario predicts a market of roughly 2.4 million units, while the baseline scenario estimates around 2 million vehicles across all segments for that year.
A significant component of the revised framework involves powertrain and technological goals. By 2035, internal-combustion vehicles are projected to comprise 67% to 83% of production, depending on the vehicle type. Electric and hybrid passenger cars are expected to make up at least 25% of Russia’s new passenger-car market by then. The strategy also targets the production of approximately 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035, including driver-assistance and digital vehicle systems.
Manufacturing capacity and localization remain key priorities
Russia’s existing manufacturing infrastructure exceeds its recent annual output, with passenger-car capacity at around 2.8 million units in 2025, despite a production volume of about 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity stood at approximately 300,000 units, with actual output near 80,000. Truck capacity was about 130,000 units, and bus capacity hovered around 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories produced roughly 4,400 vehicles with electric powertrains, an increase from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets higher localization and technological independence targets for domestically produced vehicles. Covering passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technologies, the framework aims to align the 2.8 million annual production target with the goal of achieving 80% domestic market share. An implementation plan will be required following the order that approved the updated strategy.